Dallas Cowboys mock draft tracker: The case for a 1st-round trade

The consensus big board at NFLMockDraftDatabase.com has the following players ranked as the top defenders in the draft.

For the Cowboys, these are the ‘Big 6’ – if any one of them fall to No. 12, the Cowboys need to make that player their pick. And if the Big 6 are all gone, should the Cowboys default to the next best defenders in the draft? Here’s the second tier of defenders – the ‘Second 6’, if you will – and their rank on the consensus big board:

Every few weeks, we do a mock draft roundup here on Blogging The Boysand today we’ve collected 40 post-free agency mock drafts (summarized at the bottom of this post), in the hope that the collective wisdom of these mocks provides us with some insight into what could happen during the draft.

The following chart provides some clarity on which player could be available for the Cowboys at which spot (based on the 40 mocks) and is conveniently organized by the different player tiers.

At first glance, it looks like there’s only a slim chance one of the Big 6 falls to the Cowboys, but that’s not quite the case. In fact, 15 of the 40 mocks (38%) have the Cowboys landing one of the Big 6 with their first pick, six more have one of the Big 6 falling past the Cowboys. Combined, that’s a 53% chance one of the Big 6 is available for the Cowboys with their first pick – and you’ve got to to like those chances.

The question is, what should the Cowboys do if they miss out on any of the Big 6? The 40 mocks have a simple answer: default to a player from the Second 6.

Jermod McCoy looks to be the default choice of the mock drafts when the Cowboys miss out on a Big 6 player, and he’s been steadily climbing as a prospect since January. Part of that is owed to Mansoor Delane, who himself has been climbing the mocks into the Top 10. Outside of McCoy, Dillon Thielemann and Akheem Mesidor are also seeing their draft stock improve, while Keldric Faulk is not getting much consideration anymore.

Moving down the draft, there are obviously a lot of candidates for the 20th pick. Here are the top guys picked for the Cowboys by the 40 mocks:

But back to our original question, what if all blue-chip defenders are gone? Because in some ways, picks 2-11 in the draft are a murderer’s row for the Cowboys’ dream of a Big 6 player falling to 12. The following chart shows how frequently a defensive player is mocked to the teams picking 2nd through 12th:

The Titans and Browns are really the only two teams that are more likely to pick an offensive player over a defensive player. Eight teams picking ahead of the Cowboys could be destinations for any of the Big 6 players. And the Bengals represent a particularly hard stop for fans of Caleb Downs. Downs gets picked ahead of the Bengals in 21 mocks, but when he slips to #10, the Bengals pick him in 13 of the remaining 19 mocks.

The next eight picks, from 13-20, are almost the exact opposite of the first twelve, as you can see in this chart:

After pick 12, and before the Cowboys pick again at #20, there are only two teams with a significant interest in a defensive player.

The Buccaneers are looking hard at pass rushers, with 21 of 40 mocks giving them one of these five players: Akheem Mesidor (10 mocks), Keldrick Faulk (7), T.J. Parker (2) and Cashius Howell (2). Linebacker also gets some consideration with four mocks having them pick C.J. Allen. But importantly, they seem to have almost no interest in cornerbacks, as just two mocks have them picking Avieon Terrell.

The Vikings seem to be set on drafting a safety. Dillon Thieleman lands in Minnesota in 26 of 40 mocks, the highest such number in the first round outside of Fernando Mendoza (40/40 at #1) and Arvell Reese (32/40 at #2). Fellow safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren gets consideration in two mocks for the Vikings.

For the Cowboys, this presents an interesting dilemma: If they miss out on a Big 6 player at #12, do they move down into the very late teens or early twenties? Because the mocks here suggest they will essentially have the same pool of defenders to choose from at #20 than they’d have at #12 – minus a safety and probably one pass rusher.

So, do you sit at #12 and just pick from the Second 6 pool of players, are do you move down 8-10 spots and still select from almost the same Second 6 pool of players?

And even past that #20 spot, there’s not really a big run on defenders until very late in the first.

The Chargers seem to be in the market for defensive linemen. Both pass rushers (Akheem Mesidor: 5 mocks, T.J. Parker: 4, Keldric Faulk:1, Cashius Howell: 1) and defensive tackles (Peter Woods: 4, Kayden McDonald: 3) get some consideration here.

The Bears are big on defensive tackles (13 mock) or the last safety (10), while the Bills are pretty indiscriminately picking whatever defender falls their way (Edge:12, DT:4, CB:4, S:3, LB:2).

So there you have it: There’s about a 50/50 chance a Big 6 player falls to the Cowboys at #12. But if that doesn’t happen, there’s a relative lack of interest in defensive players from picks 13-24. Do you try to trade down, do you “settle” for Jermod McCoy, or do you sit tight, trust your board, and pick the best defender available, knowing that pick will likely be a reach versus the consensus board?

Here’s the table with all 40 mocks.