Hunter Skoczylas shares a preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s NHL matchup between the Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings.
The Sabres host the Red Wings tonight in an Atlantic Division tilt at the KeyBank Center at 7:30 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Moneyline is an even -110 split, and the game’s total is set at O/U 6.5 goals. John Gibson and Colten Ellis have been named the starting goaltenders. It will be Ellis’s first career start in the NHL.
Below, I’ll share my top preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s tilt between the Sabres and Red Wings.
Sabres vs. Red Wings prediction, preview
Sabres preview
The Sabres opened the season with three straight losses and only two goals to show for it. The club then responded with back-to-back wins and 11 goals over the Senators and Panthers. Despite playing only three games this season, Zach Benson leads the team with six points and has unlocked the offense with his playmaking. Buffalo has asked longtime backup Alex Lyon to be its starter this season, and he’s been very solid with a 2.55 GAA and .924 SV%. But Lyon has started every game thus far, and the club is turning to 25-year-old Colten Ellis, who will make his first career start. Ellis posted a 2.63 GAA and .922 SV% across 42 AHL appearances in 2024.
It’s the same old theme for Buffalo, except it has seen solid goaltending for the first time in years. If Lyon was starting, I’d feel much better about their chances, but not so much with Ellis. The Sabres rank 28th in goals per game but 10th in 5v5 xGoals per 60. They’ve allowed the 16th-most goals per game but 27th in 5v5 xGoals against per 60. Positive regression may be coming offensively, but whether or not it will be enough remains the big question for Buffalo. One major positive has been the club’s special teams play, ranking seventh in PP% and second in PK%.
Red Wings preview
On the opposite end of the Atlantic Division spectrum is the red-hot Red Wings. Detroit has won five straight games and ranks inside the top-10 in both expected goals per 60 and expected goals against per 60. Dylan Larkin leads the club in both goals (5) and points (11), and has nearly double the points as his next closest teammate, Alex DeBrincat, who has recorded six assists in as many games. While Cam Talbot has been the better goaltender this season, Detroit will give John Gibson the start. Gibson is 2-1-0 with a 2.99 GAA and .873 SV% following an awful outing in his first start, in which he allowed five goals against just 13 shots.
Detroit has been cookin’ and enters tonight’s tilt with three days’ rest. The Red Wings won three of four matchups against the Sabres in 2024, with the lone loss coming at the KeyBank Center. While they’ve found success offensively, ranking 9th in goals per game, it has been the play at all levels that has resulted in this winning streak. Detroit deploys a middling powerplay unit, but it has allowed the sixth-fewest shots on goal per game and ranks fourth in PK%.
Sabres vs. Red Wings pick, best bet
The Moneyline odds are a near-even split, but I’m not sure why. I know the wheels will fall off the Red Wings’ wagon eventually. I just don’t see that happening tonight in the middle of a five-game winning streak against an inferior division opponent. It’s hard to trust a 25-year-old goaltender making his NHL debut, especially when he plays for the Sabres. As a Sabres fan, I truly never know what version of this team we’re going to see, but I do know that it has struggled against the Red Wings across the past two seasons. Detroit has won six of eight meetings dating back to the start of the 2023 season.